The Bermuda Triangle — this again?
Project: Go FACT yourself!
I often become obsessed with random topics, going down rabbit holes, reading up on them, and finding exciting statistics that make me rethink my biases. If I am lucky enough, I will find a dataset actually to check things out for myself, and even luckier if I can mine the data for myself and analyze it. Recently, I started writing about it. This stemmed from my interest in finding and telling stories using data. Initially, a few of my roommates shared this interest, and we used to spend hours discussing random topics like this. We even joked about starting a podcast about interesting things in the Dataverse. (Well, Anu, if you are reading this, I was serious about it. Do you still want to do it?) Since then, we graduated, and everyone has gone their way. I still find myself reading and researching random topics, but those impromptu discussions are not happening anymore. So, that brought me here - to write about things!
The topic this time is the most talked-about mysteries and conspiracies of all time. I'm sure most of us have spent at least one evening discussing the Bermuda Triangle, its disappearances, and what it could mean. The Bermuda Triangle has become a metaphor for things or people that never come back, but does it live up to the hype, or is it just a sensationalized myth?
Bermuda Triangle.
In the past 200 years, a small area in the Atlantic Ocean known as the Bermuda Triangle, or the Devil's Triangle, has witnessed the disappearance of 20 planes, 50 ships, and hundreds of people. This region has become an aquatic graveyard where researchers have discovered hundreds of wrecks. Scientists have developed several hypotheses to explain this phenomenon, which has caused fear and curiosity among people, leading to numerous books and documentaries about the mystery. There seems to be an unexplainable anomaly lurking deep beneath the ocean's surface, far beyond the reach of sunlight.
In this blog post, I will explain the true nature of the Bermuda Triangle mystery and why this dangerous ocean zone has fascinated and frightened millions of people.
The Bermuda Triangle refers to a stretch of water in the North Atlantic, extending from Miami to San Juan and Bermuda.
1492
The mystery of the Bermuda Triangle dates back to 1492 when Christopher Columbus was attempting to reach Asia. During his journey, he passed through this infamous region of water, and that’s when things started to get strange.
Columbus kept a detailed journal, which has been translated into English. According to his notes, on September 13th, 1492, something peculiar happened to his compass. He observed that “at the commencement of the night, the needles turned a half point northwest, and in the morning, they turned somewhat more northwest.”
He reported the sea rising and a flickering light in the distance, like a candle.
1606
The mystery surrounding the Bermuda Triangle has persisted for centuries. In 1606, a large English ship carrying 150 passengers encountered a massive hurricane while traversing through the triangle, resulting in the ship being wrecked at Bermuda. Although it was not a mysterious phenomenon, it left a lasting impression on how people perceived this body of water. It is believed that this shipwreck inspired Shakespeare’s play, “The Tempest,” which often referred to Bermuda, or Bermoothes, as a vexed or cursed place.
1881
In 1881, a ship sailed from Liverpool to New York City. While passing through the Bermuda Triangle, the passengers witnessed a ghost ship with no crew members on board. There are different accounts of what happened, but the general consensus is that some of the crew decided to board the ghost ship, which was then separated from their own ship by a massive storm. When they finally reunited with the ghost ship the next day, there was no trace of the crew. If this account is true, it is a spooky and unsettling occurrence.
1918
The USS Cyclops, a large US Navy ship carrying 300 men from Salvador, Brazil to Baltimore, Maryland, disappeared without a trace in February 1918. The ship was en route through the infamous Bermuda Triangle, but no distress signal was ever sent out. Despite search efforts, no wreckage or debris was ever found.
One article published a few years later stated that typically, remnants of a lost ship, such as a wooden bucket or a cork life preserver, would be discovered after a wreck, but nothing belonging to the Cyclops was ever found. The ship seemed to have vanished into thin air, leaving no trace behind.
In an official statement, the US Navy declared that the disappearance of the ship was one of the most perplexing mysteries in the history of the Navy.
1941
In 1941, the USS Proteus carrying 58 passengers and metal vanished within the Bermuda Triangle. One month later, another Navy ship disappeared with 61 people on board.
1945
During World War II, in 1945, a group of airplanes were conducting a three-hour exercise over Grand Bahama Island. The planes were flying from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and were supposed to return to their base after the exercise. However, they never returned. This incident sparked suspicion and over time, more disappearances occurred, leading to questions and speculation about what may have happened to the planes.
1948
A flight carrying 25 passengers and six crew vanished in 1948.
1949
Another plane of the exact same model disappeared a year later. Since then, there have been over 70 mysterious disappearances in this patch of ocean. It was here that Columbus first noticed something strange happening with his compass and since then people started noticing it more and more.
1950s
In the 1950s, a writer wrote, "There have been other disappearances in this sea of our backyard, and always the record, when the account is finally closed, has an ominous notation: 'No trace found'."
1964
The term "Bermuda Triangle" was coined in 1964 by Vincent Gaddis in an article where he pointed out that, even though the sea distances were relatively short in the area, there were still an unusually high number of disappearances that couldn't be explained by chance alone.
People wanted answers.
Theories and Conspiracies
In 1974, Charles Berlitz released his book, “THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE,” delving deep into the mysteries of this enigmatic stretch of water. Berlitz argued that something beyond bad weather was at play in the Bermuda Triangle, suggesting it was a gateway to something far more significant. He wasn’t afraid to explore alternative theories, including connections to ancient civilizations and residual energy affecting the area. From magnets and crystals to wormholes and rifts in space-time, these forces hinted at the untapped potential of our universe, all brought to light by the mysterious disappearances in the Bermuda Triangle.
However, it’s essential to clarify that a book like this doesn’t provide concrete evidence; it’s more about presenting intriguing possibilities. While I found myself engrossed in the subject initially, I started to lose interest when the narrative veered towards crystals and alien interventions to save humanity from nuclear fission.
It’s crucial to acknowledge that we can’t establish a curse based on a handful of isolated incidents, even if they span hundreds of years and are factually accurate. What baffles me is that despite the book’s numerous factual errors, it sold over 14 million copies worldwide, translated into 22 languages. It makes me wonder why we’re drawn to these mysteries, eager to find connections in disparate observations. I, too, get captivated by a good mysterious story, and it’s no surprise that others do too. Our brains seem wired to seek out these tantalizing narratives, especially when storytellers sprinkle in embellishments like the Cyclops not sending an SOS distress call, despite having the capability.
This inclination towards mystery and storytelling is both fascinating and concerning, given how potent a tool storytelling can be in shaping our perceptions. It can make us believe in the unreal. But let’s continue our journey through the Bermuda Triangle, as there’s a genuinely satisfying, evidence-based explanation for the disappearances that puts the myths and speculations to rest.
Scientific Hypotheses
The Bermuda Triangle has sparked serious scientific hypotheses aimed at unraveling its mysteries. These theories range from disturbances in geomagnetism that can disrupt compasses and navigation tools, as evidenced by Columbus’ journal entry, to methane blowouts — an actual phenomenon involving explosive methane deposits under the ocean floor that can create massive craters, swallowing anything floating above.
But what about the plane disappearances? A more straightforward explanation could be hurricanes. The Bermuda Triangle, located in the Caribbean, experiences an unusually high number of intense storms. These storms may give rise to rogue waves, colossal waves reaching over a hundred feet, which could be responsible for some of the disappearances.
With methane gas, geomagnetism, and the Caribbean’s stormy weather systems, it becomes apparent that this region can be treacherous for both planes and boats. These are plausible scientific explanations that demystify the Bermuda Triangle, devoid of the need for Atlantis, crystals, or aliens.
However, it’s crucial to maintain a discerning perspective. Simply mentioning scientific terms like “geomagnetism” or “methane blowouts” doesn’t equate to presenting irrefutable evidence. These are hypotheses and speculations, not definitive conclusions.
So, will we ever uncover the truth behind the Bermuda Triangle? The answer is yes, but it won’t come from listening to stories of ghost ships, Navy vanishings, or 100-foot waves. To truly comprehend the phenomena of this region, we must adopt a different approach.
Data-driven answers
I examined the aviation and marine casualty data over the last few decades to compare this region and elsewhere globally.
Marine Casualties
I first utilized the Marine Casualty & Pollution Data for Researchers dataset, covering 150,000+ records from 1982 to 2015. While this data primarily focuses on Coast Guard investigations related to U.S. activities, it serves our purpose by including incidents within the Bermuda Triangle and other global oceanic regions.
After pre-processing the dataset and excluding records with typos, formatting issues, and missing data, I was left with 9,096 incidents for our analysis. Of these, 361 were located within the Bermuda Triangle, defined as the area between Miami, Bermuda, and San Juan, Puerto Rico. I concentrated on events occurring at least 80 miles from the nearest coast as I sought to explore conditions in ocean regions.
What did the data reveal? When examining the causes of casualties in the Bermuda Triangle, I found that they closely mirrored the worldwide pattern, with a somewhat lower occurrence of capsizing events, likely due to the proximity to major trading ports. Interestingly, no incidents classified as ‘Disappearance’ were reported within the Bermuda Triangle between 1982 and 2015.
To determine if the frequency of incidents in this region was within expected parameters, I employed kernel density estimation, which helped me visualize data density and identify areas with unusually high rates of marine incidents. The results indicated that naval incidents were primarily concentrated around the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of Alaska, and the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean, with the Bermuda Triangle situated on the eastern edge of the Gulf of Mexico. This suggested that the Triangle might not be an isolated hotspot but rather characteristic of the marine region around the southeastern U.S.
What remains unanswered, however, is whether this concentration of incidents is due to high marine traffic or severe weather conditions. To delve into this further, I needed to integrate global shipping traffic data into our analysis. Unfortunately, access to relevant data sources was restricted, but I turned to meteorological data to assess the influence of weather on Triangle incidents.
My findings revealed a clear correlation between adverse weather conditions and marine incidents, supporting that weather plays a significant role in these events, particularly in capsizing and collision cases.
Aviation Casualties:
Turning our attention to aviation incidents, I explored the Aviation Accident Database provided by the National Transportation Safety Board, which covered all investigated accidents from 1962 to the present, including both commercial and military flights.
While notorious incidents like the Flight 19 bombers’ disappearance and various passenger aircraft mysteries have fueled Bermuda Triangle legends, a closer examination of the data revealed that most incidents occurred during landing and take-off, primarily in the Bahamas. Only a few incidents during flights resulted in fatalities, and the only documented commercial flight accident was attributed to poor weather-related decisions by the pilot.
Conclusion:
In light of this analysis of marine and aviation casualties over the past few decades, we can conclude that the Bermuda Triangle is not an exceptionally anomalous region. Notably, most mysterious incidents occurred in the pre-radar and pre-satellite weather tracking era, making communication and recovery of wreckage challenging.
It’s worth noting that the authenticity of publicly available data remains uncertain, and further steps can be taken to cross-validate with alternative sources. This analysis also highlights the need to explore cluster regions such as the Gulf of Alaska and the northwestern Pacific Ocean, where incidents are surprisingly frequent despite being located in open waters. Applying data science to examine casualty causes in conjunction with meteorological data may offer insights into reducing fatalities in these regions.